Some interesting (or not) stats of the Top 10

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Some interesting (or not) stats of the Top 10

Postby BlueCheeseHead » Wed Nov 28, 2012 3:16 pm

fueled by my reply to wol-va-rine down below regarding the 'defense wins championships' mantra. I originally had it in that response and then realized that not only was it overwhelming in length, but the brilliance of it would get lost in the shuffle :lol:

TOP TEN (current) TEAMS:

Florida is an interesting case. They have the #101 ranked offense in the country, and yet the 2 games they struggled most in (237 vs LSU and 183 vs SCarolina) are games they won; 14-6 / 44-11 respectively. In the case of SC, FL had a short field to start with on almost every scoring drive - mostly due to turnovers. So there's a case where the offensive stats don't really match up to the performance. We all learned the same during the RR years - as horrible as our D stats were, they weren't aided by the fact that our offense was a quick-strike/up-tempo offense and that we turned the ball over too much. Both of those things not only forced the D to be on the field a whole lot, but put the other teams in position to rack up yards & points.

Of the current Top Ten teams in the country [ND, AL, GA, FL, OR, KSU, LSU, STAN, A&M, SCar], among all D1 teams they average to the following:

#52.7 Offense
#21.4 Defense

> With the exception of Florida, ALL of the teams with either zero or 1 loss have a variance between O/D rankings of 42 or less: ND 42, Bama 42, GA 2, FL 96, OR 42, KSU 15

> The 2 loss teams have a variance larger than 50: LSU 69, Stan 64, A&M 50, SC 75

> Of ALL of the Top 10, only A&M has a variance where the Offense is ranked higher than the Defense, and yet of all of the 2-loss teams they have the lowest variance. In other words, the difference in the effectiveness of their offense vs defense is the lowest of their group.

> A&M also has the highest rated offense in the Top 10 (3), but the lowest rated defense (53), and yet they beat the highest rated 1-loss team (Bama)

> Maybe most significantly of all the stats (throw out the 'great D' / 'great O' debates): ALL of the Top 10 teams, except A&M are ranked 50 or higher in Turnover Margin and are a positive in that category

> Vs other Top 10 teams, Florida is the King at 3-1 (ND is "perfect" at 1-0, but I mean ONE game vs a Top 10 team vs four?). LSU (2-2), Bama, Stanford and Georgia (all 1-1) are at .500, while SC and A&M are 1-2. Oregon is 0-1 and Kansas State is 0-0....they haven't played a single Top 10 team. Why is the Big12 so highly rated by the computers again?

> Another seemingly very significant stat is SCORING DEFENSE. Of the Top 10, every one of them is ranked 30 or higher.

> Conversely, in Scoring OFFENSE half of the Top 10 are Top 20 ("elite"), while the other half are fair or worse [SC 43, LSU 54, Stan 63, FL & ND 75]

> ALL of the Top 10 except KSU are 38th or Better in 3rd Down DEFENSE, allowing less than 40% conversions for opposing offenses

> Conversely, 6 of the 10 have Top 30 3rd Down OFFENSES [A&M 1, KSU 11, AL 18, ND 20, OR 22, GA 27] and the other 4 are a crap shoot [SC 43, LSU 53, Stan 74, FL 84].

> In RED ZONE OFFENSE, only Notre Dame has a Red Zone O that has scored less than 80% of the time. They are ranked 73rd in the country. Each of the other Top 10 teams are ranked between 45th [SC & FL] and 9th [Bama].

> Time of Possession seems to be a fairly useless stat (as my long-held belief has been) in that only 3 of the Top 10 are in the Top 20 [FL 6, ND 11, KSU 17]. Four more in the Top 50 [Stan 21, AL 29, LSU 33, SC 49] and the rest.....interestingly the more open/up-tempo offenses...are 90th or lower [GA 91, A&M 93, OR 101]

So make of those stats what you will. It appears that D stats fuel the higher ranked teams more than offensive stats do, but it appears that effectiveness and turnovers are the real key (note, for example, that while A&M's D stats aren't the greatest overall, they are ranked 30th in scoring D and 11th in 3rd Down D)

Geez, how'd I get off on this tangent???? I really should put these into a spreadsheet and create my own formula for picking winners in games... :D
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